Chapter VII

PERIODS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE With Description of Cycle No. 3
ARLIER in this book I stated that every thing that has a beginning in the worldly plan of existence starts its career in ac cordance with a cycle of progression just as the human life begins a cycle at birth. Just how long such cycles may last or continue to manifest depends upon many things, and just as human life on this plane may last for a month, a year, thirty years, or eighty or more, so a business proposition or an institution or a commercial plan may have a life of activity covering a month or a year or a score of years. However long it may operate or continue to exist, its existence will be in accord' ance with a cycle of progression that is just as definite as the cycle of progression of human life. In other words, if several men unite today to organizie and incorporate a new business under a
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new name, to carry on a new line of activity, and the new name of the company and its new plans are adopted and definitely completed today, then this new business would have its birthday today, and would begin its career today, and would have a cycle of progression beginning with today, just as though these persons had given birth to a human form with a soul.
Each one of our business institutions, business schemes, plans, or forms of activity, has a birth' day. In other words, there is some day in the years that are passing that constitutes the day on which the business first started, or first made its repre' sentations to the public, or began its material activities. • Most businesses operating today can easily determine what day in the month in the years that are passed they began their activities, but the so-called fiscal year should have nothing to do with the determination of the birthday of a business. Many businesses that actually began their careers in June, July, or August have made their fiscal year run from September to September, or from January to January. If the beginning of the fiscal year is used as the true birthdate of the
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company, a mistake may be made in working out the periods of each year. It is not absolutely neces' sary to have the precise or exact date of the start' ing of the business or proposition, whatever it may be, so long as one can select the day of the be' ginning approximately. In other words a variation of two or three days will not make any difference. Important points to bear in mind in determining what is the true birthday of a business are as follows: The day on which the company received its incorporation charter is not as important as the day on which the company began its business affairs in dealing with the public. The day on which a number of persons gathered together and decided to start a business and actually selected the name and officers of the business is a more correct birthday than the day on which the first announcement was made to the public, or the first article was sold. In smaller lines of business, the day on which a store or factory was rented and the work of installing equipment or furnishings was started would be the birthday of the business. The day on which a person gave up his other affairs and began to plan and work out a new
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proposition would be a more correct birthday than the day on which he actually sold or handled any of the products of his business. If a business has had a formal opening with a formal announce' ment of the opening, and a reception of the public, and a definite start of the business in a formal way, then this day would be the birthday of a business. With a business that has changed hands or changed its name, the date on which the firm began to operate with the new name or with the new owners would be the birthdate of the present busi' ness, regardless of how long it had been operating under the older name. Thus we see that some little thought must be given to the determination of what is the approximate birthday of a business. When we speak of business, we mean not only stores which sell merchandise at retail of any nature whatsoever, but also of factories and man' ufacturing businesses, brokerage firms, real estate offices, professional businesses such as those of physicians, artists, musicians, and others in similar lines. A birthday may be the opening of the office of a mail order or sales proposition, the starting of a canvassing or selling plan, or any scheme of
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definite operation that has to do with commercial or business activities, wherein either a group of persons or only one person is involved.
Having determined, therefore, the approximate birthday of any business or proposition of a ma' terial business nature, one should proceed as with the marking of the periods of the cycle of human life. In other words, start with the approximate date of birth and write down on a piece of paper the periods of fiftytwo days each. Let us say that a man or group of men started the manufacturing of a piece of machinery. Let us say that the busi' ness was born on the day when the partners came together and deposited their money in a bank and decided to go into business together and selected a name for their firm. Let us say that this date was approximately the third of June, nine teen hundred and fourteen. The third of June each year would be the anniversary of the birthday of that concern. Starting, therefore, with the third of June, we would count off on the calendar given on the preceding pages fiftytwo days from the third of June. This would give us July twenty-fifth as the date of the end of the first period, and the
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beginning of the second period. Counting off another fiftytwo days, we would write the end of the second period on the piece of paper and so on until we had written down the dates of the beginning and ending of the seven periods in each yearly cycle of the business. Now in each of these seven periods various Cosmic influences, urges, tendencies, and impulses would affect the affairs of the business, just as though that business were a human entity. Since the business itself depends upon the actions and reactions of human nature on the part of the pubHc, and those officers and persons directing the business, so we find the business itself is reacting to the impulses, urges, and tendencies of the complexity of the human nature involved. This enables us, therefore, to analy2,e the trend of each business proposition, and to discover that it has certain favorable and unfavorable periods during which the best interests of the business may be protected, advanced, modi' fied, or conserved.
Let me present, therefore, a brief analysis of what each business of any nature whatsoever may expect during the seven periods of its yearly cycle.
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Period Number One. During the first fiftytwo days of the yearly cycle of each business, beginning with its birthday and covering the fiftytwo days following, each business will find greater success in all forms of promotion that solicit or depend for their success upon the good wiU and the prefer^ ment of the pubUc. It is not as excellent a period for the actual building up of sales and return of money as it is a period for securing approval, favor, recognition, and general good will. This would be the period to soHcit endorsements or high recognition by eminent persons and concerns that would either result eventually in sales through such persons, or in giving widespread publicity and advertising to the concern. It is also an excellent period in which to advertise widely a business, not so much for direct sales as to build up prestige and pubhc recognition. It is a good period for the sending forth of emissaries, representatives, or high members of the firm to meet other eminent persons in the business world, and therefore, se- cure recognition and high favor. For this reason it is an excellent period to deal with government of' ficials, judges of the court, or senators, or congress-
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men from whom you desire preferment, special favors or the passage of protective bills or regu' lations. This makes the period also good for the securing of political influences, political coopera- tion, and recognition. The thought of the concern during this period should not be of money, but of name, reputation, and prestige.
Period Number Two. During this period any firm or business of any nature will find that it is a good time to make important changes of a tempo- rary nature in regard to important employees, modifications in business practice, temporary loca- tions, and for trying out short time plans and propositions. On the other hand, it is a very unfavorable period during which to make any new agreements, any new plans of a definite nature, or to enter into any contracts or agreements of any kind unless they are reduced to writing, and properly sealed and signed so as to give them a long time standing. Verbal agreements and ar- rangements entered into at this time are very apt to be cast aside quickly and changed very rapidly or suddenly, and amount to nothing. It is also a good period for the building up of business friend-
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ships, and every business firm would do well to take advantage of this period to contact new and prospective customers in a friendly way, for busi' ness friendships of a very helpful nature have generally been built up during this period.
Period Number Three. Here we have a period of construction and great engineering power. It is during this period that any business proposition should be pushed to its utmost. Every faculty and every means of manufacturing, seUing, producing, advertising, promoting, and extending the business should be adopted and utilized to the utmost dur' ing this period. It is also a good period for the arrangement of plans for collections, or to send out collectors or letters intended to collect money, but it is not a good period for attempting to fight any issues in court that have to do with the activi' ties of business enemies, business rivals, or business competition. Other legal matters, however, may be pushed at this period, and will generally receive more favorable reaction than at any other period, especially if the matter is one that calls for the expenditure of a great deal of energy and of con' siderable fighting for the protection of certain
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issues or rights. On the other hand, every firm and business should watch out for dangerous accidents, disasters, and troubles through enemies, through fires or through sudden explosions of wrath, en' mity, or hatred during this period. Manufacturing plants and other propositions should be careful of fires or explosions from fires, gases, and stored up energies of any kind during this period. It is dur' ing this period also that personal enemies of the business will attempt to wreck it or even to injure the character or life of a person connected with a business, if the business has attained any degree of enmity on the part of competitors or others. It is a very good period for deahng with army and navy matters, the military departments of the government, engineering, munitions, machinery, or firms or individuals associated with these.
Period Number Four. This is the period in which any firm or business would do well to enter into its largest campaign of widespread adver- tising, whether this be nation-wide advertising or the mere solicitation by letter of customers in a limited area. Whatever writing, planning, and scheming of promotion a business firm or individual
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may want to do in any year of its business, it will be found to be most successful during this period of the business cycle of each year. On the other hand, it is also an excellent period for the drawing up of new contracts, new agreements, papers of incorporation, documents, transfers, and so forth. It is an excellent period to deal with newspapers, diplomats, arbitrators, or others who can use their mentalities or printed or written words to further the interests of the concern. On the other hand, firms must be careful during this period to watch out for deception by word of mouth or writing, for forgeries, and for tricky agreements or plans cleverly presented and apt to have a serious reaction in many ways.
Period Number Five. Here is a period of growth and financial success for any concern or business proposition. This is the period in which to seek investment, or seek to secure credit and extend the time in which payments must be made or negotia' tions closed. It is one of the best periods in the business year for selling, and the actual distribution of material on a sales basis if immediate results and a quick and fair return of money are desired.
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It is an excellent period in which to collect bad or old debts, and it is an excellent time in which to bring matters into court where the favorable decision desired hangs by a slender thread, for all things being quick and right, this period is favorable to a constructive and just decision. It is an excellent period also for the promotion of the business into foreign lands or distant places or with large concerns that deal in international matters or have international distribution and sales agree- ments. It seems to be an especially good period for business firms to promote their affairs with rail' road, railway, and electric companies, and with all companies and concerns that deal in things that cater to the pleasures and happiness of the public. Period Number Six. This is the period in each year when every business should relax in its activi' ties if it finds it necessary to relax at all, and should plan its periods for the vacation or absence of any of its important directors or operators. It is also an excellent period for the promotion of certain branches of business such as those that deal with the art world, or with music, poetry, sculpturing, artists' materials, women's clothing,
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or articles of adornment, beauty preparations, high grade shoes, hosiery, evening wraps, hats, luxuri- ous automobiles, oriental rugs, antique furniture, fine books, expensive musical instruments, con- certs, operas, and other things representing the luxuries, refinements, and clean and wholesome pleasures of life. Therefore, it is well to push the sale of things of this nature during this period, or to promote good will or interest among persons who are associated with such lines of business. This is an excellent period for the heads of a concern or the individual owner of any kind of business to make the acquaintance of his custo- mers, and to make such intimate contacts with persons as may be helpful to the business or the individuals of the business in the near future. It is also a good period for the collection of money, the buying of stocks and bonds or the promotion of the finances of the company through invest- ment in conservative stocks of other concerns. Therefore, it would be an excellent period for the bringing about of partnerships, monopolistic corporations, and the foundation of subsidiary associations and alliances of a similar nature.
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Period Number Seven. Here we have the recori' struction period for all business propositions, and during these last fiftytw^o days before the birthday of the concern or business, great care must be taken not to start any nevs^ line of activity or to go too heavily into advertising that is intended to build up a new department or a new phase of the business, or to do otherwise than cooperate with the Cosmic tendencies to reconstruct. Since it is the period during which changes of a tearing- down nature must be expected, it is a wrong period in which to plan to do reconstruction without the prehminary stage of tearing down. In other words, during this period no expansion must be expected unless it is associated in some way with a breaking down or tearing down process as a part of the reconstruction. Since some form of breaking down and change is very apt to take place during these fiftytwo days, every business concern or individual should see that any con' templated changes or tearing down processes that have been in mind are brought to issue during this time, and therefore permitted to expend them- selves or manifest themselves while such a period
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is favorable. Certainly no new alliances, affilia- tions, partnerships, or agreements, contracts, or offers of agreement or contract should be made during this period. It is an excellent time to con- sult with persons of retirement, or who have been in business and have retired, or with judges, referees, or advisers of any kind. All acts must be guarded with a conservative attitude, and ex- treme caution and providence manifested in every line of activity. Great diplomacy must be shown in every act, and every business should take ad- vantage of this period to conserve its activities, hold steady to its line of progress, and not allow anything of a radical nature in either advertising, selling, buying, or planning to occur.
Thus we have an outline of the favorable and unfavorable influences, urges, and tendencies from the Cosmic during the seven periods of the yearly cycle of each business or form of business activity. You may test the occurrences of this outHne by going back over your business affairs for several years, and noting in what periods of each year you have had trouble with your competitors or with enemies or in what periods of each year you
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have had the greatest sales and the most success in promotion, or the most disruptive and tearing down conditions to contend with. You will soon find, if you review your business activities over a period of ten or more years, that your business affairs have naturally divided themselves into per- iods that agree with the outline given above. You will also notice, if you are keenly analytical, that in certain periods of the past when you have at' tempted to do certain things with your business, that your plans have failed or the scheme you had in mind or started did not materiah2,e as you expected, and you will see that it was due to the fact that you started these things or planned these things in a period that was not favorable.
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