II. Diirer's view of the end of the world (From: Heimlich Offenbarufig

Johannis, Nuremberg 14£)8).
INTRODUCTION
49
which led to the prediction and discovery of the planet Neptune have nothing in common with the mathematical methods used in economic research, or with the mortality tables of insurance companies, though all of them fall into the category of logical predictions. The speculations of astrology are completely dif- ferent from the speculations on which Utopians build their state of the future. While our own classification ( below ) is admittedly less concise than the lexicographers', it is probably much closer to reality.
By setting up a classification of our own, we do not wish to assert that other classifications are impermissible. In the field of prediction, it is always inadvisable to make fine distinctions, since none of them ever agrees with reality. What we are con- cerned with is simply to demonstrate the wealth and complexity of the methods with which mankind attempts to form a picture of the future, for only in this way can we overcome the prejudice that true prediction and prophetic speculation are identical, and that the only way to the future is through charlatanism and black magic.
Human beings have always wanted to look ahead, and to a large extent are capable of doing so. Methods of prediction have changed over the ages ; some have been discarded, others, no less confused, have been retained, but many new and valuable facts have come to be appreciated. Only by taking complete stock of all the available material, can we hope to choose cor- rectly. This is the task I have set myself in the following chapters of this book.
Methods of Prediction
Classification Basis Intuitive Revelation
Inspiration
Characteristics
Belief in transcen- dental inspiration and absolute faith in the validity of the prediction.
Sudden realisation of hidden connec- tions.
Applicability
Religious pro- phecy.
Many discoveries and inventions.
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Classification Basis
INTRODUCTION
Characteristics
Deductive
Inductive
Activist
Imaginary
Verifiable Deduction of par- laws ticular predictions from a general principle.
Pseudo-laws Predictions from illogical or anti- quated principles.
Individual Unsystematic de- experience ductions by false analogy.
Experiment Generalisation of systematised indi- vidual investiga- tions.
Statistics Conclusion from aggregates ac- cording to proba- bility theory.
Individual action
Planning
Creative fiction
Predictions of the results of volun- tary behaviour.
Long-range and complex objec- tives; creation of new conditions.
Utopias, Science fiction.
Unconscious Visions, generally fiction based on wish- fulfilment and past events.
Applicability Science, Sociology.
Astrology, Fortune- telling, Palmistry, etc.
Work, particularly crafts.
Science, Technology.
Meteorology, Medi- cine, Public Opinion Polls, Economic re- search. Insurance, Government.
Everyday life.
Industry, public fin- ance, armaments.
Literature, Art.
Dream Visions, Hal- lucinations.